Single indicator that tells the whole story

200 moving average on a weekly chart, of Nasdaq 100 –

200w MA, Nasdaq 100.

For S&P 500, or Dow Jones you’ll see similar chart. This moving average acts as a huge support, and whenever it breaks for long period (for S&P it was broken temporary on Covid-19 crisis at March 2020), it means we’re on a deep recession.

Zooming in the last decade, and it worked perfectly –

Nasdaq 100 with 200w MA – previous decade

Going backwards to the first millennium’s decade and it was broken for long periods during the dot.com (2001) and subprime (2008) recessions –

Nasdaq 100 with 200w MA – one before last decade

Now the interesting part – something telling me we’re on similar point to this point at 2001 –

Are we replaying Jan 2001 now?

…thus mid-term rally and then diving down into a deep recession.

Anyway it’s a great indicator for long and mid term investors.

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