In addition to this, I’ll try to raise another argument for the bulls for Midterm/October rally before recession.
2001
Take a look at this Nasdaq 100 weekly chart, with Unemployment Rate marked in Cyan and 200 moving average in gray (more on this indicator in here).
Seems like unemployment rate is pretty low in order to start talking about a recession already.
Let’s have a reference –
On 2001 recession, the chart had broken brutally this 200ma line when unemployment rate had raised, back in Feb 2001, thus one month later from the moment we’re here now where we meet the 200ma when unemployment rate is low.
2008
On 2008, similar story – failed attempt to break the 200ma downward when unemployment rate still low, followed by successful attempt few months later when unemployment was higher – Lehman Brothers moment:
Since 2008
Please note that this weekly 200ma line of defense hasn’t been broken since 2008, even on March 2020 flash crash (S&P 500 did fall temporary from this line, Nasdaq didn’t).
Conclusion
Therefore this is another argument that recession might be ahead – however mid-term rally could take place before that, since unemployment rate is not signaling we’re ready for a recession.