Market forecast – Dec 2022 – updated to 25 Nov 2022

Bottom line – short this mother fucker rally’s ass

Bullish rally needs some legs to go on; I don’t see both fundamentals and technicals evidences for neither of them.

Surely anything can happen, Putin and Xi can become cheerleaders and smoke the peace pipe, however till that happens… (NFA)


I’ve mentioned several times how I hate using DXY as a valid indicator for US markets (see here, here, and many places here), however since many people are looking at it, then…

DXY against 200 ma (red) with RSI

200 daily moving average strong support, with bullish divergence on the RSI… Technically it should go up from here.


While RSI making new lows that haven’t been seen for almost 20 years, a hidden bullish divergence can be spot on. The last time we’ve been in this situation is depicted in the following chart, SPX in orange above –

VIX daily chart

S&P 500 forecast

Since everything is correlated (Nasdaq, crypto, Russel 200, Dow Jones, etc.), I won’t bother to draw other charts, who cares if Nasdaq will drop 5% or 15% as long as you’re swinging in the right direction…

S&P 500 is very close to hit the 200 moving average plus the global bear market trend line. Usually when such a target approaches, bad news take the financial headlines (another indicator); similar news on bullish trend are set aside – not to interrupt the trend…

S&P 500 (futures) on daily chart

Market catalysts

J Powell’s gonna speak on 30 Nov (1:30 pm), and PCE gonna be published the day after (8:30 am of 1 Dec). Till then the market can continue rally, crypto firms can continue bankrupt and the dem-damn media can continue treat SBF as a Mother Teresa.

Oh, and one more thing!

Looks like China are preparing for the ‘reopening’.. πŸ˜‰

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