Crypto market guidance – mid April 2022


We’re playing within the 0.382-0.5 fib levels, corresponding to $39247-$40635 BTC horizontal lines, after falling from the $47K-$48K sweet range.

Seems like this level is not a coincidence, it goes back till the beginning of this bull cycle, on Jan 2021!

Zoom out

What does it mean for us?

It means that those are strong support/resistance levels, and it requires high volume to break it. It means also other thing, which is more importance for us – whenever we break this range up or down, it will mark the beginning of bull/bear trend –

Zoom in

Got you, pal. Now what can I do about it?

First, calm down. We’re probably gonna stay here for a while, till something serious will happen. Something like FED guidance that wasn’t priced in, geopolitical event, Covid-19 or yet another black swan (by definition black swan is something we don’t think about, so I can’t list the options here, like climate crises, etc.)

So during this range, you can play with it for a while. Long on bottom, sell and start short position on top. Just don’t do shitcoins; it’s not the time, you don’t wanna be stuck with those during capitulation event.

Switch to 2 hours TF – zoom in

Shorter time-frame

Linear regression with double high & low horizontal lines.

It’s important to looks at the wider scope, however zooming in for a while is great for having a focus before taking actions. On this image you can see current trend; the blue & red lines function as support-resistance for low and lower time frames.

Longer time frame

Linear regression with normalized MACD & RSI

I argue that the local bull run started the 15th of March, hasn’t been completed yet. It might be ended soon, however according to the time of writing (date in the title of this post) it didn’t yet.

Normalized MACD with RSI gives usually fine indication for trend changes. On the 15th of March (marked with vertical green line) we have a confirmed breakout to the upside. On the 30th of March, on the other hand, we have unconfirmed breakout to the downside.

…and when this range will be broken?

Back to the 4 hours chart above, and the horizontal lines:

To the upside – take a look at those images, it usually marks the beginning of a bull trend. Low caps tokens looks like shit right now, so this is the time for an easy 2x. At least.

To the downside – lord will be with you if you hold some shitcoins (never too late to get rid from those), anyway stay cool, it just means you better be focus on your other activities and don’t look at the charts for a while. And we’ve got price alerts right in here for that. Free of course, everything is free on this website. You can also start a short position, or short farming.

Important warning

When taking action close to support/resistance, wait for confirmation. It’s extremely important to cross check it with some fundamental factors (macro, news, on chain analysis, etc.), cause institutional investors know what we see over here. There’s big money on the table, and a lots of manipulations and fake outs mainly on those areas are going on.

Start with small amount and then add on, don’t long shitcoins (unless you’re surely know what you’re doing), and of course feel free to short them – just spread the funds over some of them if there’s not enough liquidity for your positions.

Good Luck and feel free to comment/contact me.

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