Two indicators that might prove bottom is not near, if we’re heading into a recession (as much as I hate to admit, technical recession due to 2 consecutive negative GDP is not enough.) –
- Unemployment rate (Cyan) is too low, and has no bottom signs so far. Actually we’re on a generational lowest level of unemployment rate.
- VIX (red), though quite high, reached 40 level at least during the past two previous recession bottoms.
Of course history yada-yada-yada, however we need to keep in mind nothing on fundamentals had changed, Putin didn’t become a cheerleader and the FED’s not gonna stop at least till something is broken (in the US – not in UK…) – inflation is still driving their policy in the front sit.