August 2022 – consider shifting from sideline to shorting the market

I’ve quickly evaluated current situation, and here are my observations –

  1. Since BTC correlates Nasdaq, and alts correlate BTC, there’s no point in investing in crypto, unless a serious crash gonna happen – I’m talking about ~$4K BTC level. Investing in stocks has similar reward, with less risk.
  2. Inflation – looking around me, I don’t need the official laggy reports, inflation is still around. Rents are going up, food is expensive, cars, everything. Oil stopped going up, but didn’t went down significantly. Therefore the FED has to protect the little man, since he can’t make a living.
  3. Recession – most of the indicators still pointing out we’re heading into a recession, maybe at 2023, but on this direction.
  4. Summer rally – this was quite expected, and we have also the mid-term elections.
  5. Geopolitical situation – no significant change so far.
  6. Health – no one buys this monkeypox hoax.
  7. Housing market – FED raising interest rates, and world wide leveraged housing bubble is a recipe for a serious crash on this field. It just needs some layoffs or some other ingredient to get some steam.

Conclusion – after PPI tomorrow or maybe even before I think I may shift finally from waiting on the sidelines to getting actively shorting the market.

Inflation didn’t go down guys… it went UP 8.5%…

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