Learn from your success, not only from your mistakes (!)

Like everyone else (except from some liars) I can’t predict the future. HOWEVER, I can hold a strategy, test it against possible scenarios, and acknowledge its pros & cons for each case. And learn & adapt over time.

First – retrospective

We get attracted to crypto on bull runs, and reject our plans during bear markets.

I’ve lost a lot on bull runs (2017 & 2021) with alts, usually cause no one bothers to notify me when the party is over, and my only biggest win was buying BTC at ~$4K at ~2019.

Did you get that? Not holding – buying.

There’s something more important than learning from mistakes

So why am I telling myself and you this? Cause we indeed need to learn from our mistakes – but also from our success stories.

  1. Holding alts is for professionals. You need to be aware of each alt tokenomics and milestones all the time. You need to diversify – however diversify means full attention to more alts… You’re gonna babysit several infants at the same time, and if you lose attention to one of them, the result can be like in real life… (missing Terra/FTM early collapse signals).
  2. Holding BTC for the long term is a great idea – however you need to put funds you can afford not to touch for the long term. Think about your real-estate status, and your relatives – would you might need this money during this time period and have to cash out in a short notice, which might happen in the worst timing?
  3. Downtrends – sit on stablecoins and wait for opportunities. Not doing anything might be the hardest part. Saying no to some fake rallies requires some character. Mainly if you lost a lot and want to return some.

Since you won’t be able to distinguish a dead cat from a real bottom – the idea is not to hold any asset for more than few days. Few hours is also a long time. You can call it swing/day trading, definitely not scalping, however it’s not investing. Use CEX like Binance, sit on BUSD and not USDT. Do I really need to explain why? (seriously, ask me if you need me to elaborate on this, it’s crucial.)

dead cat bounce
Dead cats are bouncing all over (source)

Now the most interesting idea: when you think the market will go up, long BTC. When you’re sure we’re – short an alt.

You’ve got two questions to answer so far – which alt, and when.
Which alt – you need a risky one, a one with a vulnerability that might be exploited or a sector that might suffer more in a bear market (metaverse?). It has to be a high market cap one, otherwise you won’t be losing on some trades.

As to when – use TA only when there’s no macro event above us. E.g.: when the Ukraine war will be announced, and BTC will be in a bearish TA mode: buy BTC like there’s no tomorrow. The TA will follow. And vice versa, so many times BTC was bullish when J Powell started to speak… and then we found ourselves in another 5%-10% decline.

Don’t trade the news. The market will react faster than you. Do adjust to the big changes in world finance – peace in Ukraine or change in FED policy.

2 comments

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