The following checklist is the ultimate gold standard, if they’re on your side. Of course this is rare, so we can compromise some of them, and balance risk management accordingly. Global Fundamentals Technicals Specific asset Fundamentals Technicals
Covid Low is a Magnet
Mid term investing thinking Rules – Don’t invest on assets that haven’t been visiting their Covid low. Some of them will revisit Covid lows. It doesn’t have to be exactly the Covid low, and of course they don’t have to do it together (or at all). This is just one hypothesis, please validate and cross… Continue reading Covid Low is a Magnet
Where I’ve been wrong, right, and where to go from here. Thoughts, and planning.
The wrong part My bad. I’ve went short too early and too heavy. The reason I’ve been wrong is double – I’ve broken my own assumption, that trendline is just a directional indicator, not a real resistance. Didn’t evaluated ‘the power of the pump’ – had to wait for momentum to keep on. The right… Continue reading Where I’ve been wrong, right, and where to go from here. Thoughts, and planning.
Market forecast – Dec 2022 – updated to 25 Nov 2022
Bottom line – short this mother fucker rally’s ass Bullish rally needs some legs to go on; I don’t see both fundamentals and technicals evidences for neither of them. Surely anything can happen, Putin and Xi can become cheerleaders and smoke the peace pipe, however till that happens… (NFA) DXY I’ve mentioned several times how… Continue reading Market forecast – Dec 2022 – updated to 25 Nov 2022
My Stock market analysis and recommendation for next week and the following one.
Retrospective – past week Quite a roller coaster, during earning season – started well with banks and Netflix, then Tesla disappointed, however the last day was quite a surprise: While downtrend was confirmed by options market, bonds fundamentals and TA, half an hour before market open on Thursday – market surged violently higher. Market manipulation?… Continue reading My Stock market analysis and recommendation for next week and the following one.
Bottom is not near.
Two indicators that might prove bottom is not near, if we’re heading into a recession (as much as I hate to admit, technical recession due to 2 consecutive negative GDP is not enough.) – Unemployment rate (Cyan) is too low, and has no bottom signs so far. Actually we’re on a generational lowest level of… Continue reading Bottom is not near.
Post CPI Reversal Reason and looking forward
Price action, post CPI release – Thursday 13 October 2022 was quite an odd for most investors/traders out there. CPI went bad – 8.2% YoY, 0.4% more than previous month, above expectations; markets indeed reacted accordingly, however then an amazing reversal took place, right when everyone braced for capitulation – The story behind it As… Continue reading Post CPI Reversal Reason and looking forward
Midterm rally prospects, another indicator.
In addition to this, I’ll try to raise another argument for the bulls for Midterm/October rally before recession. 2001 Take a look at this Nasdaq 100 weekly chart, with Unemployment Rate marked in Cyan and 200 moving average in gray (more on this indicator in here). Seems like unemployment rate is pretty low in order… Continue reading Midterm rally prospects, another indicator.
Single indicator that tells the whole story
200 moving average on a weekly chart, of Nasdaq 100 – For S&P 500, or Dow Jones you’ll see similar chart. This moving average acts as a huge support, and whenever it breaks for long period (for S&P it was broken temporary on Covid-19 crisis at March 2020), it means we’re on a deep recession.… Continue reading Single indicator that tells the whole story
Why am I betting on a mid-term rally now
Too many influencers are waiting for the next ‘leg’, the capitulation, or the Lehman Brothers event. IMHO we might grind down, however the US market can’t have a capitulation event without a major vulnerability – The housing market and the banking system, though leveraged are less vulnerable than the 2008 ones. Job market never been… Continue reading Why am I betting on a mid-term rally now